The immediate political landscape in West Africa has been significantly impacted by a military coup in neighboring Guinea-Bissau on November 26-27, 2025, leading to the ousting of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who has since arrived in Senegal. Domestically, Senegal continues to navigate complex economic discussions, particularly regarding its debt and engagement with the IMF, while also observing internal political dynamics between President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko. Senegal remains active in regional diplomatic efforts and has recently taken steps to strengthen its economic standing through new financial instruments.
Recent Developments:
- November 27, 2025: Guinea-Bissau’s deposed President Umaro Sissoco Embaló arrived “safe and sound” in Senegal. This follows a military coup in Guinea-Bissau which saw the army install Major-General Horta N’Ta Na Man as the transitional president. The coup occurred after a disputed presidential election on November 23, 2025, during which both Embaló and his challenger, Fernando Dias, claimed victory. Land borders of Guinea-Bissau were closed, and a curfew was imposed in Bissau starting at 19:00 on November 26, 2025.
- November 25, 2025: Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko did not travel to Abu Dhabi for expected diplomatic negotiations, choosing instead to focus on national economic and social initiatives. This decision has fueled discussions regarding internal political dynamics within the Senegalese government.
- November 24, 2025: President Bassirou Diomaye Faye participated in the EU-AU Summit in Luanda, Angola, where he advocated for renewed multilateralism and peace in Africa, emphasizing peace, security, governance, and multilateralism. On the same day, the Senegalese government and the West African Development Bank (BOAD) launched the Senegal Asset Valuation Fund (Fovas) to monetize public infrastructure and raise additional state financing without undertaking IMF-recommended debt restructuring.
- November 22, 2025: Former Senegalese President Macky Sall met with Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara in Paris to discuss the political situation in Dakar, including the ongoing differences between President Faye and Prime Minister Sonko. Ouattara reportedly supports Faye in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
- November 21, 2025: Senegal hosted a conference in Dakar where UNESCO urged stronger backing for a new regional Action Plan to combat misinformation and enhance information integrity across West Africa and the Sahel.
- November 10, 2025: President Bassirou Diomaye Faye inspected troops during Armed Forces Day celebrations at Camp Dial Diop in Dakar.
- November 8, 2025: Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko mobilized thousands of supporters at a “Tera meeting” in Dakar, where he denounced the financial management of previous governments, stating, “Anyone who denies hidden debt should go to prison”. He also indicated that Senegal is resisting IMF pressure to restructure its debt, deeming it a “disgrace.”
- November 6, 2025: The IMF concluded a mission to Senegal without a new lending program but expressed intent to finalize one as soon as possible.
- November 12-13, 2025: A high-level dialogue on security sector governance and reform was held in Dakar, organized by UNOWAS in partnership with ECOWAS, AU, UNOAU, UNDP, and GIZ, to deepen understanding of Security Sector Reform (SSR) challenges in West Africa and the Sahel.
Diplomatic Movements & Exiles:
- President Bassirou Diomaye Faye:
- Attended the EU-AU Summit in Luanda, Angola, on November 24, 2025.
- Was present at Armed Forces Day celebrations in Dakar on November 10, 2025.
- Previously visited France for the Global Forum for Vaccine Sovereignty and Innovation on June 19, 2024.
- Received an invitation to an exclusive U.S.-Africa Summit hosted by President Trump from July 9-11, 2025.
- Undertook official visits to Lomé, Togo, on July 25, 2025, and Monrovia, Liberia, on July 26, 2025.
- Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko:
- Prioritized national economic initiatives over an anticipated diplomatic engagement in Abu Dhabi on November 25, 2025.
- Held a large political rally in Dakar on November 8, 2025.
- Made official trips to China in June 2025 and Turkey in August 2025.
- Reportedly plans to travel to Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin, though this trip is awaiting President Faye’s approval (as of November 7, 2025).
- Was invited to the Bpifrance BIG 2025 event in Paris on September 23, 2025, with French diplomats preparing for potential talks with the French Prime Minister.
- Ousted Leaders/Exiles:
- Umaro Sissoco Embaló (Former President of Guinea-Bissau): Arrived in Senegal on Thursday, November 27, 2025, after being overthrown in a military coup in Guinea-Bissau.
- Macky Sall (Former President of Senegal): Met with Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara in Paris on November 22, 2025, to discuss Senegalese politics.
- Regional Political Refugees: As of October 31, 2025, Mali is hosting over 150,300 refugees, primarily from Burkina Faso and Niger, who are fleeing insecurity and attacks by non-state armed groups. While the immediate presence of a large influx of these refugees specifically in Senegal is not indicated, the regional instability highlighted by these numbers is a significant security concern.
Key Actors & Statements:
- President Bassirou Diomaye Faye: Advocated for renewed multilateralism and peace at the EU-AU Summit on November 24, 2025. He also called for a new era of investment at the “Invest in Senegal Forum” on October 7, 2025. Reports also highlight underlying tensions between him and Prime Minister Sonko.
- Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko: Publicly denounced the financial management of previous governments at a rally on November 8, 2025, and stated that Senegal is resisting IMF pressure for debt restructuring. His decision to miss the Abu Dhabi diplomatic engagement on November 25, 2025, underscores a focus on domestic priorities and potential internal political tensions.
- Umaro Sissoco Embaló (Deposed Guinea-Bissau President): Following his ousting, he arrived in Senegal on November 27, 2025. Prior to his removal, he had claimed victory in the disputed November 23 election and accused his opponent of staging a “false coup attempt” to derail the election.
- Major-General Horta N’Ta Na Man (Transitional President of Guinea-Bissau): Installed as the new transitional leader of Guinea-Bissau on November 27, 2025, after the military coup.
Implications & Outlook:
Short-Term Projection (Next 48 hours):
The presence of the ousted Guinea-Bissau President Embaló in Senegal could lead to immediate diplomatic activity, potentially involving ECOWAS or other regional bodies, as they address the coup and its implications for regional stability. Senegal may be called upon to play a mediation role or provide temporary asylum. The situation in Guinea-Bissau remains volatile, with potential for further internal developments.
Long-Term Strategic Impact:
The Guinea-Bissau coup deepens concerns about political instability in the West African sub-region, particularly given the historical fragility of the country and its role as a narcotics trafficking hub. This event could prompt increased regional security cooperation and potentially stricter border controls. Domestically, the ongoing internal dynamics between President Faye and Prime Minister Sonko, coupled with the critical discussions around Senegal’s national debt and IMF engagement, will significantly shape the country’s economic and political trajectory. Senegal’s efforts to diversify its economic partnerships and strengthen its security institutions (as discussed in the November 12-13, 2025, security dialogue) indicate a strategic focus on resilience amidst regional challenges. The stance taken by Ivorian President Ouattara in supporting President Faye on IMF negotiations could also influence Senegal’s financial landscape. The expansion of extremist groups like JNIM near Senegal’s borders also poses a long-term security threat that requires continuous monitoring.
